Shoppers at ASDA in Crewe, don’t need government statistics to tell them that times are tough, they see the difference after they’ve paid for the essentials every month.

ASDA’s most recent Monthly Income Tracker shows that the typical British household is poorer now than a year ago – meaning that prices have risen faster than earnings in that time. This continues a trend that has run through 2008. ASDA calculate that inflation on household essentials is currently over 5%  -far greater than the official level, and that petrol prices are up 20% in the last year.

The ‘ASDA family’ could be the ‘Mondeo Man’ of the next general election. According to the supermarket, their shoppers most closely resemble the profile of the typical household across the country, so if they are feeling the credit crunch, a lot other people will be as well.

The lesson Tony Blair drew from meeting ‘Mondeo Man’, although in his speech he referenced the previous model, the Ford Sierra, was that Governments have to be on the side of the aspirations of the voters. This is lesson that Gordon Brown seems to have forgotten.

When people have less money of their own, they are more critical of how the Government spends the money its takes off of them in taxes – fostered in this case by a belief that Labour has squandered a lot of this money. Also, as the 10p tax row demonstrated, they are very critical of attempts by the Government to grab even more.

Also, the motivation of the Government, and its sense of direction and travel, is increasingly at odds with those of aspirational ASDA families. Labour is constantly looking for ways to ‘pick pocket or two’ to raise extra tax revenues, whereas people who work hard for their money would rather the government shared their desire that they should keep more of it.

There will always be better and worse times in the economic cycle, but we should expect that at all times, the Government is being careful in its management of the public finances.

Like the ASDA family shopping, the Government must balance what it needs, against what it wants and can afford. For tax payers too, we have to balance off the amount we pay, against the public services we need now and in the future. On both sides of this equation, Gordon Brown is starting to look like an over priced Prime Minister.